We’ve been made to wait, but finally the 16th European Championship is only days away! Anticipation for the tournament has increased given its postponement last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold across Europe, and while the virus is still a clear and present danger, we are thankfully in a far better place now to combat it compared to last spring, when the decision was taken to put Euro 2020 on the backburner.
The tournament retains its original name despite the one-year delay, but one victim of the pandemic has been Dublin. The Aviva Stadium in our capital city was due to be one of the 12 host cities across the continent to host matches at the finals, but the government’s inability to guarantee UEFA that the venue could take spectators led to it being crossed off the list. It is of course disappointing that Ireland won’t stage any matches, but with continuing uncertainty over the pandemic, it may be for the best that athletes (and potentially fans) from other countries where COVID-19 is a bigger problem than here won’t be coming into the country.
No football festival in Dublin, then, but 11 other cities across Europe will play host to a tournament with a unique format which is one enduring legacy of Michel Platini’s controversial reign as UEFA president. It was his idea to spread the competition throughout the continent, with host cities as disparate as Bilbao (now replaced by Seville), St Peterburg and Baku. The spreading of the tournament across such a vast land mass has naturally drawn opposition, yet logistically it isn’t hugely different from the World Cups which took place in enormous countries such as Russia, Brazil and USA in previous years.
In terms of the action on the pitch, France will be aiming to repeat their feat of 21 years ago by adding the European title to their world crown, while group rivals Portugal seek to emulate Spain in 2012 by retaining the trophy. For Belgium, this could be a golden generation’s best, and last, chance to enjoy tangible success to accompany their number one world ranking, while England travel to the finals buoyed by a splendid 2018 World Cup and an abundance of talent.
Welcome back, too, to Italy and Netherlands, with the high-profile duo both missing out on the last World Cup, while huge credit to Finland and North Macedonia on making it to a major tournament for the first time.
You’ve been made to wait 12 months but at last Euro 2020 is here! Here is the Togher Perspective on all 24 finalists hoping to be the lucky team celebrating at Wembley on 11 July.
GROUP A
ITALY
The darkest hour often comes before the dawn, and after the unprecedented pitch-blackness of November 2017 when they failed to make it to the World Cup, fresh rays of sunlight are again being cast over the Italian national team.
Roberto Mancini has wasted little time in restoring the Azzurri’s reputation since the debacle of four years ago, currently on a 25-match unbeaten streak which included a national record 11 straight victories, a 100% record in qualification and a defensive solidity which saw them concede just four goals en route to Euro 2020. That was largely down to the wily central defensive partnership of Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini, with 22-year-old goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma already staking a claim to rival Gianluigi Buffon in the longevity stakes. Their front three of Fedrico Chiesa, Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne can be devastating if they all click, yet they can all flatter to deceive in Italy colours.
Few will have Italy down as potential winners, while the likelihood is that they will eventually be undone by a team with greater individual quality. However, Mancini has instilled a tremendous team spirit in this Azzurri side, whose renaissance could continue nicely with a strong showing at the finals, not least with home advantage for all three of their group games.
Probable XI: Donnarumma – Florenzi, Bonucci, Chiellini (c), Spinazzola – Barella, Jorginho, Verratti – Chiesa, Immobile, Insigne
Euros history: Their only triumph came way back in 1968, while they have lost two finals this century. Surprisingly, had only been in the finals three times prior to 1996.
Verdict: Should come through the group with ease and may benefit from a relatively kind draw to reach another quarter-final. Anything more would be a tremendous finish for the Azzurri.
SWITZERLAND
Switzerland maintained their impressive record of qualifying consistently for major tournaments, missing only one in their last nine attempts. Alas, their last three Euros or World Cup appearances have all ended in the last 16. Indeed, the Swiss have not won a knockout match at a major finals since 1938.
Vladimir Petkovic’s side enter Euro 2020 with a settled line-up, featuring a plethora of players between the peak footballing period of ages 24 to 29. A strong three-man defence, marshalled in a holding midfield role by the inspirational if sometimes ill-tempered Granit Xhaka, makes the Nati a solid unit. They have a talented attacking trio in Breel Embolo, Haris Seferovic and Xherdan Shaqiri, but the latter two can blow frustratingly hot and cold. The excitement could come from roving wing-backs Nico Elvedi and Steven Zuber, both of whom have impressed in the Bundesliga.
Switzerland are likely to be involved in a three-way battle with Turkey and Wales to finish second behind Italy in Group A. They’ll probably do enough to get out of the group as per usual, but the all too familiar tale of a last 16 exit could then lie in wait.
Probable XI: Sommer – Schar, Akanji, Rodriguez – Elvedi, Freuler, Xhaka (c), Zuber – Shaqiri – Embolo, Seferovic
Euros history: Made it out of the group stage for the first time in 2016 at their fourth attempt. Been to every finals except one since 2004.
Verdict: Yep, you guessed it, elimination in the last 16. It’s as inevitable as night following day.
TURKEY
Perhaps no team has benefitted more from the postponement of Euro 2020 than Turkey, who this time last year had several key players sidelined through injury. The question now is whether they can take advantage of their good fortune.
The evidence from qualifying suggests that they certainly can. Senol Gunes’ side conceded only three goals on their way to the tournament, their defence superbly marshalled by Leicester’s Caglar Soyuncu and Juventus’ Merih Demiral. Even more impressively, they took four points off world champions France in the qualifiers and also pummeled Netherlands in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers a few weeks ago. They also have a strong front four, with Lille duo Burak Yilmaz and Yusuf Yazici riding the crest of a wave following their team’s shock Ligue 1 triumph. AC Milan playmaker Hakan Calhanoglu also poses a threat from open play and set pieces.
Gunes led Turkey to the finest footballing hour, third at the 2002 World Cup, and while nobody is expecting a similar showing this time around, the Crescent Stars could be the surprise name in the latter stages of the tournament, with a bang in-form group of players throughout the pitch.
Probable XI: Cakir – Celik, Soyuncu, Demiral, Meras – Yokuslu, Tufan – Yazici, Calhanoglu, Under – Yilmaz
Euros history: Reached the semi-finals in 2008 and the quarters eight years previously. Their other two appearances ended in group stage exits.
Verdict: If Turkey can clinch second in the group, the draw opens up the distinct possibility of reaching the quarter-finals.
WALES
Portugal may have won Euro 2016 but Wales were arguably the tournament’s biggest success story, making it all the way to the semi-finals in their first major finals in 58 years and eliminating Belgium while they were at it.
Several stalwarts remain from that wonderful summer in France, most notably talismanic captain Gareth Bale, along with the midfield pairing of Joe Allen and Aaron Ramsey. They are joined by younger talents such as Ethan Ampadu, Joe Rodon and Daniel James, who have emerged in the qualifiers and the two Nations League campaigns to become key components of this Wales side. However, their preparation for the finals has been disrupted by manager Ryan Giggs’ court proceedings relating to charges of assault. He will not be involved at the tournament, with his assistant Rob Page instead overseeing proceedings.
The Welsh should have a good go at making it out of the group but, in terms of overall quality, they may just be pipped by Turkey and Switzerland for the middle two positions in what looks like a wide open Group A.
Probable XI: Hennessey – C Roberts, Mepham, Ampadu, Rodon, B Davies – Allen, Ramsey – Bale (c), Moore, James
Euros history: Didn’t reach the finals until 2016 but made it all the way to the last four in France before succumbing to eventual winners Portugal.
Verdict: Page’s men could be the unlucky team to come last in what seems a hard-to-call three-way battle for second behind Italy.
GROUP B
BELGIUM
They are the number one ranked international team in the world and have been touted as contenders for several major tournaments, but there is a sense of ‘now or never’ for Belgium at Euro 2020.
Roberto Martinez was the unlikely man who took them to third place at the 2018 World Cup and he remains in charge of arguably the most talented group of players in the international game. The defensive nous of Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen, the mesmerising creativity of Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard, topped off by the consistently ruthless finishing of Romelu Lukaku, all combine to make Les Diables Rouges a formidable outfit. The tournament’s delay also ensured that Hazard would not miss the finals through injury, even if he isn’t quite the scintillating force of nature that we saw at Chelsea.
Belgium will breeze through the group with maximum points and should get to the quarter-finals before facing a serious test. They came a cropper at that stage five years ago; a repeat collapse would be seen as failure. They need to be making the semis at the very least; from there, it’s a matter of whether this glittering array of players can hold their nerve and deliver the tangible success which they have promised for so long.
Probable XI: Courtois – Alderweireld, Denayer, Vertonghen – Meunier, De Bruyne, Tielemans, T Hazard – Mertens, Lukaku, E Hazard (c)
Euros history: Five previous tournaments, their best finish being runners-up in 1980. Their other semi-final appearance came in 1972.
Verdict: Getting to the semi-finals is a minimum requirement. France may edge them once they make it that far.
DENMARK
Any preview of Denmark at a European Championship will invariably be built around their miraculous triumph in 1992. However, unlike Greece in 2004, they have shown at many other tournaments that they can be a handful for the best of the continent’s bunch.
At 29, Christian Eriksen is just about still at his peak, and the Danes rely hugely on his creativity and scoring prowess to make the rest of the team tick, given their lack of a genuinely potent centre-forward. Defensively they are sound, with Kasper Schmeichel maintaining the family tradition of top-class goalkeeping, Simon Kjaer an uncompromising centre-back warrior and the twin midfield pillars of Thomas Delaney and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg nullifying the opposition.
Having made it to the last 16 at the World Cup three years ago, Kasper Hjulmand’s team should be capable of doing likewise at Euro 2020. A quarter-final appearance is not out of the question, given that they’ll likely face Group A’s runners-up.
Probable XI: Schmeichel (c) – Wass, Kjaer, Christensen, Maehle – Delaney, Eriksen, Hojbjerg – Poulsen, Dolberg, Braithwaite
Euros history: Reached six successive tournaments between 1984 and 2004, emerging as shock champions in 1992. They have made it to the semi-finals on two other occasions.
Verdict: Should get out of the group and might have an outside shot at the quarters, but I think they’ll fall in the last 16.
FINLAND
It has been a long 19 months, but Finland supporters can finally embrace witnessing their team at a major tournament for the first time after their historic qualification for the finals back in November 2019.
Markku Kanerva took over a Finland team at a very low ebb back in 2016 but slowly revived their fortunes and, after a harrowing near-miss at making it to Euro 2008, the Huuhkajat (eagle-owls) finally have a ticket to the glitzy showcase. Of course, their team itself is far from glitzy, propelled by a no-nonsense target man in Norwich’s Teemu Pukki and two industrious midfielders in Glen Kamara and captain Tim Sparv. The likelihood of a five-man defence hints at how they will play, but they can conjure goals out of nothing, as Ireland found out to the cost in the UEFA Nations League last year when super-sub extraordinaire Fredrik Jensen was sprung from the bench.
The Finns won’t be the most enthralling team to watch at Euro 2020 but they are not here by accident, finishing second in their qualifying group behind Italy. A third-place finish in Group B, and the possibility of a place in the knockout rounds, is not out of the question, and that would represent a tremendous showing on their major tournament debut.
Probable XI: Hradecky – Alho, Toivio, Arajuuri, O’Shaughnessy, Uronen – Kamara, Sparv (c), Taylor – Lod, Pukki
Euros history: This is Finland’s first time at this level, having not even been ranked in the world’s top 100 at the time of Euro 2016.
Verdict: Could sneak through to the last 16 as one of the four best third-placed finishers. That in itself would be a fine return.
RUSSIA
Russia fell back in love with football when they hosted the World Cup in 2018, defying pre-tournament expectations to come within a penalty shoot-out of making the semi-finals. Alas, the feel-good factor from that memorable summer has long since dissipated.
Since then, the fortunes of Stanislav Cherchesov’s team have been dogged by controversy, with star striker Artem Dzyuba axed for a period as punishment for a foolish video posted on social media. Long-serving goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev, a hero of 2018, has also retired from the national team, while attacking talents such as Aleksei Miranchuk and Aleksandr Golovin have regressed at club level. While Russia seem strongest with a 4-2-3-1, one-time goalkeeper Cherchesov has been known to go for a five-man defence, which we may well see against Belgium’s attacking riches.
Russia tend to have one glorious tournament run amid sequences of three or four utter flops on the big stage. Even though they bolted from nowhere to have a splendid World Cup three years ago, it feels that they have gone some way backwards since then. It could be another Euros to forget for a Russian side who completely bombed in 2016 and blew what looked a nailed-on quarter-final four years before that.
Probable XI: Shunin – Fernandes, Dzhikiya, Kudryashov, Karavayev – Zobnin, Ozdoyev – Miranchuk, Golovin, Kuzyaev – Dzyuba (c)
Euros history: Reached the final four times as USSR, winning the first tournament in 1960. As Russia, this is their fifth Euros in a row and sixth in total, but a semi-final finish in 2008 is an outlier to their group stage exits on every other occasion.
Verdict: As in 2016 (and many other tournaments), it’s the first plane home for Russia.
GROUP C
AUSTRIA
Austrian expectations are being kept in check this time around, having freewheeled their way to Euro 2016 in imperious fashion only to flounder dismally at the finals in France.
The Nationalteam didn’t qualify with as much conviction this time around, which may be no harm given what happened five years ago, while they are in one of the kinder groups at the tournament. They also have some talented individuals to call upon, such as RB Leipzig schemer Marcel Sabitzer, Bayern Munich serial winner David Alaba and the epitome of the word enigma in Marko Arnautovic. However, Alaba aside, theirs is a team which relies on players who can paint masterpieces but are equally likely to leave a sorry mess behind them if they’re not at it.
I’ve learned from 2016 not to trust Austria. Even in a group containing North Macedonia and Ukraine, I can’t see Franco Foda’s side making much of an impression. Remember, they lost to Iceland and Hungary at the last Euros.
Probable XI: A Schlager – Lainer, Hinteregger, Dragovic, Alaba – Baumgartlinger (c), Ilsanker – Sabitzer, X Schlager, Baumgartner – Kalajdzic
Euros history: Their two previous appearances in 2008 and 2016 both ended in group stage elimination, the former as co-hosts and the latter as pre-tournament dark horses.
Verdict: I backed them to reach the semis in 2016. I don’t even see them winning a game this time around. Bottom of the group.
NETHERLANDS
The last time Netherlands were at a major tournament, Louis van Gaal led them to third place at the World Cup in Brazil as he prepared to take over the Manchester United job following the hapless reign of David Moyes. Remember what you were doing in the summer of 2014?
The Oranje are finally back on the big stage with almost an entirely new team from seven years ago, aside from a handful of experienced figures such as captain Georginio Wijnaldum, Tim Krul and Daley Blind. Memphis Depay was a breakout star at the 2014 World Cup; he is now in the prime of his career and has restored his reputation following an abortive spell at Old Trafford under Van Gaal. They also have one of Europe’s most promising defenders to call upon in 21-year-old Matthijs de Ligt, but the absence of defensive rock Virgil van Dijk is sure to be as sorely felt as the cruciate ligament injury which has sidelined him since October.
Frank de Boer only has to get the Dutch out of the group to equal his haul of matches as Crystal Palace manager in this tournament alone. He still has his doubters in the Netherlands, but their progress to the UEFA Nations League final two years ago showed that this team is on the right path and could restore a proud footballing nation’s good name this summer with a prolonged run at the Euros.
Probable XI: Stekelenburg – Dumfries, de Vrij, de Ligt, Blind – F de Jong, Klaassen, Wijnaldum (c) – Berghuis, Depay, Malen
Euros history: Won the tournament in 1988 and made it to four other semi-finals. Failure to reach France 2016 was their first time missing out in 32 years.
Verdict: The group stage should be a canter. They are on the comparatively kind side of the draw, too, so the semi-finals are a realistic target.
NORTH MACEDONIA
UEFA’s decision to grant one of Europe’s less noteworthy names a place at the finals via the Nations League met with plenty of criticism, but you won’t find one person in North Macedonia who is opposed to the idea. They took full advantage of the format to qualify from the low-key Path D in the play-offs, beating Kosovo and Georgia to qualify for their first major finals since seceding from the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s.
Their hero in the historic win over Georgia was Goran Pandev, the grand old master at 37 and a Champions League winner with Inter Milan 11 years ago. He is an iconic presence in Macedonian football and will be looked towards for inspiration as Igor Angelovski’s men dive into the unknown this month. At the other end of the age scale, 21-year-old Napoli midfielder Eljif Elmas could be a breakthrough gem at the finals, while English football fans will recognise the name of Leeds’ Ezgjan Alioski at left-back. However, they were dealt a blow with the cruciate ligament injury to centre-forward Ilija Nestorovski, who would’ve been a certain starter had he been fit.
North Macedonia can embark on their Euro 2020 adventure unburdened by expectation. Their fans will be happy to go along for the ride, but the team will have their sights set on proving that their appearance at the finals is not mere tokenism and that they can at least compete with some of Europe’s big names. It would be foolish to write them off totally.
Probable XI: Dimitrievski – Ristovski, Velkovski, Musliu, Alioski – Nikolov, Ademi – Elmas, Pandev (c), Bardhi – Trajkovski
Euros history: Competing for the first time as an independent nation, having formed part of Yugoslavia prior to the 1990s.
Verdict: They’ll probably exit after the group stage, but don’t dismiss them as complete pushovers.
UKRAINE
From captain and talisman at Euro 2012 to assistant coach four years later, the legendary Andriy Shevchenko is back in a third different role in as many tournaments with Ukraine, this time as the main man calling the shots for his country.
The one-time Ballon D’Or winner has a strong blend of experienced campaigners, some of whom have played alongside him, and a smattering of precocious talents from Ukraine’s Under-20 World Cup-winning team of two years ago. The experience is provided by midfield anchor Taras Stepanenko and West Ham winger Andriy Yarmolenko, while the youngsters to look out for are winger Viktor Tsygankov, left-back Vitaliy Mykolenko and teenage defender Ilya Zabarnyi. Manchester City’s Oleksandr Zinchenko, a left-back for his club, typically plays in midfield for his national team, who thrashed Serbia 5-0 and beat European champions Portugal on their way to the finals.
Shevchenko has Ukraine playing some fine football and this is arguably the easiest group at the finals, so they should certainly be capable of reaching the knockout rounds. They’ll probably meet Italy in the last 16, and while they won’t fear the Azzurri, that might be where they fall to gallant defeat.
Probable XI: Bushchan – Karavaev, Zabarnyi, Matviyenko, Mykolenko – Malinovskyi, Stepanenko (c), Zinchenko – Yarmolenko, Yaremchuk, Tsygankov
Euros history: This is their third successive finals, the previous two ending in group stage exits. Won their first match in 2012 but have lost every other finals game.
Verdict: Should benefit from a kind group draw to reach the last 16. They could trouble Italy but the quarter-finals may be beyond them.
GROUP D
CROATIA
Croatia’s preparations for the tournament have not gone smoothly, having pulled out of their planned Scottish training base due to COVID fears and been held to a draw by Armenia in a warm-up friendly in recent days.
The 2018 World Cup runners-up have undergone a transition since that tournament, with stalwarts Danijel Subasic, Mario Mandzukic and Ivan Rakitic all stepping aside from the national team. Midfield schemer Luka Modric is still around, although this will surely be the 35-year-old’s international swansong. The Real Madrid veteran is surrounded by other experienced heads in Ivan Perisic and Marcelo Brozovic, with former Everton flop Nikola Vlasic now the nation’s brightest young hope. They boast two highly-rated defenders in Marseille powerhouse Duje Caleta-Car and Rangers left-back Borna Barisic, one of the most lethal attack-minded talents in his position anywhere in Europe.
Croatia looked hugely impressive in the group stage at their last two major tournaments and it would be no surprise if they were to top the pool again here. Unfortunately for them, they will probably face one of the continent’s heavyweights in the last 16, which is where they fell at the last Euros and could well do so again this summer.
Probable XI: Livakovic – Vrsaljko, Lovren, Caleta-Car, Barisic – Modric (c), Brozovic – Perisic, Vlasic, Rebic – Petkovic
Euros history: Only in 2000 have Croatia failed to qualify as an independent nation. Twice quarter-finalists, in 1996 and 2008.
Verdict: Good enough to top the group, but that comes with the booby prize of probably facing France or Portugal in the last 16. Luck isn’t on their side.
CZECH REPUBLIC
They may have been to only one World Cup from six attempts in their current guise, but this is the Czech Republic’s seventh successive European Championship appearance, a record that not even Belgium, Netherlands or England can match.
Unlike in the late 1990s and 2000s when they were one of Europe’s best teams, though, Jaroslav Silhavy’s current crop are a more mundane outfit who rely heavily on competitive spirit and upsetting the odds. That’s not to say their team is a complete pushover, though – the West Ham duo of Vladimir Coufal and Tomas Soucek excelled in last season’s Premier League, while young midfielder Alex Kral is admiring attractive glances from several major clubs. They also have a few players from the Slavia Prague side who surprisingly reached the Europa League quarter-finals, including Ondrej Kolar, Lukas Masopust, Jan Boril and Tomas Holes. Teenage striker Adam Hlozek could also be a breakthrough name at the finals, even if he isn’t a guaranteed starter.
The Czechs won’t lack for energy or endeavour, while they beat England in qualifying, but match-changing talent is at a premium in this squad. They will do well to get out of the group.
Probable XI: Vaclik – Coufal, Kalas, Celustka, Boril – Soucek, Kral – Masopust, Darida (c), Jankto – Schick
Euros history: Won the finals as part of Czechoslovakia in 1976 and, following the country’s split, the Czechs were runners-up 20 years later. Also made it to the semi-finals in 2004, when they emerged as tournament favourites.
Verdict: The Czechs will be game but the other teams in the group have more talent. Another group stage exit beckons.
ENGLAND
England made the most of unusually low expectations to reach the semi-finals at the 2018 World Cup, a sunny summer which had a nation dreaming. However, the pressure is much higher this time around given the enormous talent at Gareth Southgate’s disposal.
The selection of four right-backs dominated the squad announcement until Trent Alexander-Arnold’s unfortunate injury, yet their riches at the centre of defence are nowhere near as abundant. Where the manager could have a selection headache, though, is in attack. Harry Kane is a shoo-in, while Mason Mount should also be a near-certain starter given his form in recent months, but after that it’s a choice of two from Phil Foden, Raheem Sterling, Marcus Rashford, Jack Grealish and Jadon Sancho. Even the likes of Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka are unlikely to start, such is the wealth of options from which Southgate can choose. On form, Grealish should 100% start over Sterling, but the Three Lions boss tends to be loyal to players who have served him well in the past.
This England side has the ability to blow teams away and should have little difficulty in getting out of the group. Talk of them as potential winners needs to be kept in check, however, given that they’re on the harder side of the draw, while for all their quality they still seem suspect in positions such as goalkeeper, centre-back and central midfield. Euro 2020 may be a tournament too soon for this exciting English crop.
Probable XI: Pickford, Walker, Stones, Maguire, Chilwell – Rice, Phillips – Foden, Mount, Sterling – Kane (c)
Euros history: Only been semi-finalists twice, and not since 1996. Qualified for every tournament bar one since 1988.
Verdict: Talent-wise they are good enough to be serious contenders, but they will probably face France or Portugal in or before the quarter-finals. That may be as far as they get.
SCOTLAND
Scotland had to watch on with envy as England, Wales and both Irish teams all qualified for Euro 2016 (and made it out of the groups), but now they get to dine at the top table for the first time since the 1998 World Cup following penalty shoot-out triumphs over Israel and Serbia in the play-offs.
Steve Clarke is already something of a national hero for getting the Scots back to a major tournament, having narrowly missed out on all three European Championships in the 2000s. The former Chelsea and Liverpool coach has found a way to fit two of the continent’s best left-backs in Andrew Robertson and Kieran Tierney into his system, while he has also taken the intriguing step of deploying Scott McTominay in a central defensive three. Scotland’s pool has been weakened, however, by injuries to Ryan Jack and Kenny McLean, while the likely selection of Lyndon Dykes at centre-forward shows their limitations in that role.
The Tartan Army will enjoy whatever games they attend, but having cruelly missed out on the Euro ’96 quarter-finals on goals scored, a similar fate could befall them again even if they finish third in this group. Then again, their penalty prowess in the play-offs may be a sign that, when the margins are tight, this Scotland team finally come out on the right side.
Probable XI: Marshall – McTominay, Gallagher, Tierney – O’Donnell, McGinn, McGregor, Robertson (c) – Forrest, Dykes, Christie
Euros history: Their two previous finals appearances, in 1992 and 1996, both ended in group stage elimination.
Verdict: In a typical case of Scottish misfortune, they’ll come third in the group but be one of the two teams in that position to miss out on the last 16.
GROUP E
POLAND
Poland were an unlikely success story at Euro 2016, making it all the way to the quarter-finals and taking eventual winners Portugal to penalties. However, a dreadful showing at the 2018 World Cup knocked them back, while Jerzy Brzeczek, who guided them to this summer’s tournament, was removed from his post in January.
Former Leicester boss Paulo Sousa was hastily installed in his place and has had precious little time with his players to put his methods into practice. That shouldn’t be a problem for a certain Robert Lewandowski, who even at 32 shows no signs of slowing down in front of goal. However, their firepower is blunted by injuries to Arkadiusz Milik and Krzysztof Piatek which have ruled them out of the finals. Also, the rest of the team is rather workmanlike, so Sousa will be heavily dependent on his forwards to fire in a testing group.
Poland’s results in recent months have been up and down, and the same can probably be expected of them at Euro 2020. It could be touch and go whether they do enough to get to the last 16; I certainly can’t see them getting any further than that.
Probable XI: Szczesny – Bereszynski, Glik, Bednarek, Rybus – Jozwiak, Krychowiak, Klich, Zielinski – Swiderski, Lewandowski (c)
Euros history: Didn’t qualify until 2008 but played in every finals since then. Quarter-finalists last time around after a pair of group stage exits previously.
Verdict: May have to settle for third in the group but could do enough to get to the knockout stage. Quarter-finals may be too far for them, though.
SLOVAKIA
Slovakia’s presence at Euro 2020 will stick in the craw for football fans from this island, having done for our hopes in the play-off semi-finals on penalties and then eliminated Northern Ireland with a late goal in extra time in Belfast to book their passage.
They certainly didn’t look anything special in those two games and Group E doesn’t look overly accommodating for Stefan Tarkovic’s side. There are some familiar names in the line-up, not least inspirational skipper Marek Hamsik, along with fellow veteran Juraj Kucka in midfield and the much sought-after Milan Skriniar at centre-back. A probable 4-1-4-1 setup indicates that they are likely to keep things tight and look to frustrate their opponents rather than attacking at will, perhaps unsurprising given that they appear to be the weakest team in this group.
Slovakia made it to the last 16 on both of their previous tournament appearances but, experienced campaigners aside, their squad looks short on true quality and, while neither Ireland team could profit on that, their group rivals appear better placed to do so.
Probable XI: Rodak – Pekarik, Satka, Skriniar, Hancko – Lobotka – Duda, Kucka, Hamsik (c), Mak – Duris
Euros history: Formed one half of the victorious Czechoslovakia side of 1976. Slovakia’s sole Euros appearance since the split saw them reach the second round five years ago.
Verdict: The draw isn’t kind and they don’t seem to have enough about them to avoid the wooden spoon.
SPAIN
Spain have regressed since their golden age of 10-12 years ago, and they remain a difficult team to assess with an enormous degree of confidence. Since the autumn, they have walloped Germany 6-0 while also failing to beat a very limited Greece side at home.
Luis Enrique sprang arguably the biggest shock of any squad selection last month when he omitted the imperious Sergio Ramos, and all of his Spanish Real Madrid team-mates, from his roster for the finals. The veteran’s place at centre-back has a surprise new candidate to fill it, though, in recently-nationalised Manchester City ace Aymeric Laporte, while the likes of Thiago Alcantara and Koke in midfield should provide plenty of chances for a gifted front three of Ferran Torres, Alvaro Morata and Dani Olmo. Whether that trio will be sharp enough against low-block defences to make their opportunities count is the burning question about La Roja in 2021, while positive COVID tests this week for Sergio Busquets and Diego Llorente have hampered preparations.
Don’t be surprised to see Spain administering a thrashing or two at the finals, only to then be left frustrated by well-organised opponents they would ordinarily be expected to beat convincingly. They haven’t even been to a tournament quarter-final since their Euro 2012 triumph; ending that sequence this summer would be a job well done by Enrique’s men.
Probable XI: Simon – Azpilicueta, Laporte, P Torres, Gaya – Thiago, Rodri, Koke (c) – F Torres, Morata, Olmo
Euros history: Joint-record three-time winners, including back-to-back triumphs in 2008 and 2012. Were also runners-up in 1984.
Verdict: Anything less than the quarter-finals would be another letdown. Anything beyond that would be regarded as a significant step forward.
SWEDEN
Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s second international comeback to faciliate a fifth European Championship appearance was curtailed by a lengthy injury which means that, for the first time in 21 years, Sweden go to the Euros without the uber-maverick.
His mercurial presence will be missed by Janne Andersson and co, but don’t forget that they managed quite alright without Ibra at the last World Cup, reaching the quarter-finals. They also have a bright young attacking gem in Alexander Isak who is doing his utmost to prove a worthy successor to the 39-year-old icon. Another young talent to watch is Juventus winger Dejan Kulusevski, while RB Lepizig schemer Emil Forsberg is likely to occupy the other flank, and they have a sturdy backline featuring Manchester United’s Victor Lindelof and Rangers’ Filip Helander.
Sweden are usually reliable enough not to be disgraced at tournament level but, even with Ibrahimovic in tow, they never managed to go deep into a major competition. That looks set to be their lot again at Euro 2020 – good enough to beat weak sides and compete with the main contenders, but ultimately being outclassed by the real big boys of Europe.
Probable XI: Olsen – Lustig, Lindelof, Helander, Augustinsson – Kulusevski, Ekdal, K Olsson, Forsberg – Isak, Berg (c)
Euros history: Debuted as hosts in 1992, when they reached the last four, they have qualified consistently since 2000 but fell at the group stage in their last three appearances.
Verdict: Sweden should get out of the group at the Euros this time around, but mightn’t have enough without Ibrahimovic to make the last eight.
GROUP F
FRANCE
France followed up their first World Cup triumph by winning the subsequent European Championship in 2000. As world champions again, their mission is very simple – to pull off the global and continental double once more in the same order.
Didier Deschamps has been criticised for being an overly pragmatic coach but he has an almost obscene wealth of talent at his disposal. It almost seems like a cheat code to have Kylian Mbappe, Olivier Giroud and Antoine Griezmann in the same attack, while N’Golo Kante’s Champions League final display gave the impression of any team with him in it having a couple of extra players. Paul Pogba, often frustrating for Manchester United, usually delivers his best football in the colours of Les Bleus, while they have a solid defence also. The one question mark may be over goalkeeper Hugo Lloris, whose form at Tottenham since the World Cup has been unconvincing.
When the likes of Karim Benzema, Thomas Lemar, Jules Kounde, Ousmane Dembele and Kingsley Coman can’t be assured of making the starting XI, that says a lot about how strong a squad France will bring to the tournament. They also have some serial winners in this squad, and Deschamps – who captained France to their historic 1998 and 2000 triumphs – could well repeat the feat as a manager.
Probable XI: Lloris (c) – Pavard, Varane, Kimpembe, Hernandez – Kante, Pogba, Rabiot – Mbappe, Giroud, Griezmann
Euros history: Twice winners, in 1984 and 2000. Les Bleus were also runners-up in 2016 and losing semi-finalists on two other occasions.
Verdict: They’ll get to another final and exact revenge for their 2016 heartbreak to Portugal, emulating the legends of the late 90s and early 2000s.
GERMANY
For so long the definition of reliability at major tournaments, Germany have been a pale shadow of their former selves over the last three years. Following on from their shock group stage exit at the last World Cup, Joachim Low’s side went down to two of the most humiliating defeats in their history over the last eight months.
A 6-0 trouncing by Spain in November was followed four months later by a home defeat to North Macedonia, results which threaten to tarnish Low’s legacy as he brings the curtain down on 15 years in charge of the Nationalmannschaft. It seems astonishing that a team with the talents of Timo Werner, Thomas Muller, Leroy Sane, Ilkay Gundogan and Toni Kroos – not to mention Antonio Rudiger in the form of his life – would be so heavily doubted going into Euro 2020, but German football hasn’t been at this low an ebb since their humiliation at the finals in 2000.
Being paired with the world and European champions in France and Portugal hasn’t exactly helped, either, and it has been a long time since Germany went into a major competition with such low expectations. They will hope that might inspire them to prove the doubters wrong and restore their good name on the big stage, but recent results and a dastardly draw suggest otherwise.
Probable XI: Neuer (c) – Kimmich, Hummels, Rudiger, Gosens – Goretzka, Kroos, Gundogan – Werner, Muller, Sane
Euros history: Been at every finals since 1972 and won the trophy three times, but not since 1996. They have also been runners-up thrice, most recently in 2008.
Verdict: Don’t rule out a group stage exit given their fiendish draw, but they might eke into the last 16. Can’t see them going much further, though.
HUNGARY
If you’re Hungarian, your view of the Group F draw will depend on your disposition. Optimists will see it as a free swing whereby the Magyars can topple some giants; pessimists will fear multiple annihilations in the archetypal ‘group of death’.
As if the task for Marco Rossi’s team wasn’t hard enough since the draw was made, their hand was significantly weakened in recent days by the forced pullout of great white hope Dominik Szoboszlai due to injury, the hero of their play-off triumph over Iceland forced to watch from afar. There are several players remaining from their impressive Euro 2016 showing, including striker Adam Szalai and midfield duo Laszlo Kleinheisler and Adam Nagy. Alas, in the absence of Szoboszlai, they will need to be greater than the sum of their parts if they are to make any impact this summer.
Hungary surprisingly topped their group five years ago but this foursome is a lot harder than what they had in France. The likelihood is that they will go home early; their best hope may be to get a result which could take one of Europe’s biggest names down with them.
Probable XI: Gulacsi – Lang, Orban, At. Szalai – Nego, Kleinheisler, Nagy, Siger, Holender – Adam Szalai, Sallai
Euros history: Semi-finalists in 1964 and 1972 but have only qualified once since then, when they fell at the second round in 2016.
Verdict: They’ll hope to be competitive but the other teams in the group have a greater dollop of match-winning quality. They’ll go home early.
PORTUGAL
Portugal weren’t exactly exponents of the Beautiful Game when they triumphed at Euro 2016, but in following that up by winning the inaugural UEFA Nations League three years later, Fernando Santos’ side proved that they have maintained a champions’ mindset.
Indeed, there’s a fair case to be made for them having a stronger squad now than the one which took home the glory five years ago. Cristiano Ronaldo, set to appear at his fifth European Championship, is the obvious standout name but he is ably supplemented by Premier League duo Bernardo Silva and Diogo Jota, along with the gifted Bruno Fernandes in midfield. Atletico Madrid starlet Joao Felix could also explode at this tournament if he is given a chance in their glittering attack, while a defence featuring Ruben Dias and the evergreeen Pepe is quite strong also.
It would be a crime if the often-pragmatic Santos didn’t let this exciting Portugal team off the leash at Euro 2020, as they have the raw materials to give a prolonged crack at following in Spain’s footsteps and retaining their European title. The big question is whether they may need to get the better of world champions France not once but twice at the finals.
Probable XI: Patricio – Cancelo, Pepe, Dias, Guerreiro – D Pereira, Fernandes, Palhinha – B Silva, Ronaldo (c), Jota
Euros history: Have never failed at the group stage in seven previous appearances. Won it for the first time five years ago, atoning for losing the final on home soil in 2004. Beaten semi-finalists three times.
Verdict: The holders could go all the way to the final again, although this time I reckon France will avenge the Boot of Eder from five years ago.
PREDICTIONS
Group A: 1st Italy, 2nd Turkey, 3rd Switzerland, 4th Wales
Group B: 1st Belgium, 2nd Denmark, 3rd Finland, 4th Russia
Group C: 1st Netherlands, 2nd Ukraine, 3rd North Macedonia, 4th Austria
Group D: 1st Croatia, 2nd England, 3rd Scotland, 4th Czech Republic
Group E: 1st Spain, 2nd Sweden, 3rd Poland, 4th Slovakia
Group F: 1st France, 2nd Portugal, 3rd Germany, 4th Hungary
Last 16: Turkey v Denmark, Italy v Ukraine, Netherlands v Germany, Belgium v Poland, England v Sweden, France v Switzerland, Croatia v Portugal, Spain v Finland
Quarter-finals: England v France, Italy v Belgium, Netherlands v Turkey, Spain v Portugal
Semi-finals: France v Belgium, Portugal v Netherlands
Final: France to beat Portugal
PROSPECTS
Genuine contenders: France, Portugal, Belgium
Could go far: England, Netherlands, Italy, Spain
Surprise hits: Turkey, Finland, Ukraine
Middle of the road: Switzerland, Denmark, Croatia, Sweden, Poland
Big name flops: Germany, Russia
Honourable group exit: Wales, North Macedonia, Scotland, Czech Republic
No hopers: Slovakia, Austria, Hungary
TOP SCORER TIPS
Given the attacking talent at either team’s disposal, as well as the likelihood of them going the distance at the finals, there could be several genuine contenders from France and Portugal. Kylian Mbappe, 2016 Golden Boot winner Antoine Griezmann, Olivier Giroud, the evergreen Cristiano Ronaldo and Diogo Jota all seem like worthy shouts to carry off the top scorer prize this year.
Premier League Golden Boot winner Harry Kane could also be a contender depending on how far England progress, likewise Robert Lewandowski with Poland, while the likes of Alvaro Morata, Ferran Torres, Ciro Immobile and Burak Yilmaz could represent decent outside bets.
The man I’m tipping to be top scorer, though, comes from Belgium and his name is Romelu Lukaku. Martinez’s side should score abundantly at the tournament and no man is more prolific for Les Diables Rouges than the Inter Milan powerhouse. Even if his team doesn’t lift the trophy, Lukaku may at least have an individual honour to take away from the finals.